First Base ADP: 11 thru 15…and then a bunch more

Word. Its Sunday and that means I have a full day of churching and Panera breading in front of me. This Sunday will be my second at a Catholic church and I am hoping this time around things are a little smoother.  My wife, god love her and be with her, is Catholic and I am protestant. I would just make things easy and convert to Catholicism but I am addicted to the rush of thinking for myself. That addiction makes it difficult for me and Benedict to see eye to eye; the church doesn’t exactly provide you a lot of wiggle room on most things….well except on the issue of drinking. I hope you know, dear reader, that my Catholic jokes are all in good fun. I mean, sure they don’t acknowledge my marriage or my son and they also think I am denying gods will and that my religion is a bastardization of the true faith but hey…no biggie.

Man, as I was typing I just realized that if my wife saw that opening she would be pissed beyond belief;  she would blow the roof of my house like her name was Bree Olsen. Her anger would be unjustified however because I am just joking – the real truth is I actually like the Catholic church a good bit. Now, don’t get me wrong, I will absolutely not be drinking wine out of a cup that 150 other hacking sick malaria infested parishioners used but I will be glad to tithe a 20 and listen politely.  The ceremony and ritual are actually comforting and the people so far have been incredibly nice. I grew up in a Holy Ghost church and then a Baptist church and then another Holy Ghost church. Somehow through all the tambourines, long jean skirts, makeupless women and near hourly threats of damnation I still maintain a very strong faith. The churches I grew up in are not exactly calm and I have developed a really appreciation for order and peace and quiet; the Catholic church provides that all that in spades. When we went last week it was a seriously relaxing experience even with a slightly sick 8 month old in tow. It was to be said though that the church we attend should perhaps spend a little more time examining the optics of some of their decisions. The first time I attended I was escorted to a room labeled “Kids Room”, it was boy scout day, all the little boys were in uniform and the message was entitled “Adults Serve Your Children”. Hmmm……yeah, needless to say that was an interesting introduction to the whole process.  I made a few comments, my wife got furious and I quickly learned that making jokes about the church was not going to be a staple of our marital banter. For the rest of the service I sat quietly like a scolded child and dared not point out how much the priest sounded like the SNL Harry Carey skit. In the end the service was really nice, the message was well delivered and thoughtful, the people were incredibly gracious and I genuinely enjoyed myself in a church for the first time in about….well…..years honestly. Today will be our second trip and I am looking forward to the experience. Hopefully writing this will get all the Catholic jokes out of my system and keep my marriage intact through the mass. Anyway, since I am short on time it is really convenient that I only have short write ups for the ADP 11-15 left and I will be done with first base. Hmmm….I actually might throw in a few sleeper late round picks as well if I feel up to it. Okay, onto the baseball…..

RIGHT ON

OVERRATED

UNDERRATED

PICK TO TRADE

TRADE FOR AFTER

Kendry Morales  – 75^th Overall and the 11^th First Basemen – Honestly, I am wrong a roughly 28% of the time but I was dead right on Morales. I am going to toot my own horn a little and say that I have been following him for years and actually predicted he would break out in 2009. By the way, I know that seems like the words of an unrepentant braggart but I have so little to brag about most times…so just let me have this one okay? Morales is currently being draft in the Jay Bruce/Rickie/BJ Upton portion of the draft and that is about right considering the slight risk last year’s injury creates. If he gets back in rhythm then you can expect very Kevin Youkilis numbers except 60 picks later. Just make sure to monitor his ST health – assuming all systems are go you should draft him with confidence. Actually, I would be rooting that he doesn’t get into games until a week or so out and then he might become an even better value.

Paul Konerko – 86^th Overall and 12^th First Baseman – This is a little high for my taste. Look, it’s no mystery that Konerko can produce solid power numbers but I owned the guy during his 2003 and 2007 melt downs – at his age and coming off the luckiest year of his career my gut says be very wary of him. And don’t forget Rule #2 of drafting is don’t pay for a career year. I think he could give you roughly 30 HR but there is absolutely no way last season is repeated.  I don’t really think it is a true overvalue situation but there are a bunch of players in this general ADP ranges that I would rather have, for instance Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana, Billy Butler, Marmol, Rasmus and maybe even Granderson, CBY, Kelly Johnson or Zobrist.

Billy Butler – 93^rd Overall and 13^th First Baseman – This is a make or breaker year for Butler. He is either going to step up to a Morales/Youkilis power level or settle into a James Loney/Lyle Overbay type. Personally, I love Butler as a player and have been a big fan in the past but at some point we have to give up on the power potential. Sure, I think he will probably have a season with 25+ one of these years but with a FB% around 34% it is unlikely he will ever put the pull in the air enough to really tap into his power potential. There have been examples of hitters taking a big step forward in FB rate but they are few and far between. I would take his upside and solid production at this ADP but I wouldn’t count on more than 15-20 HR.  He is a GREAT and I mean GREAT throw in player. He can be used very easily to put a deal over the top as a throw in and that is how I principally view him – he is the ideal player to draft cheap and then flip based on upside.

Aubrey Huff 117^th Overall and the 14^th First Baseman – Was last year really a career rejuvenating season? Yes and No. Huff’s numbers weren’t overly lucky by any stretch but he is 34 years old and battling a little wrist soreness. He should be able to get 80% of last years production given health but don’t draft him expecting more than 22ish HRs. I don’t think this ADP is wrong but I would much rather gamble on Quentin, Markakis, Hunter or even Lind or Pena.

Carlos Pena – 143^rd Overall and the 15^th First Baseman – There is a lot to really hate about Pena. First and foremost his BA is freaking abysmal. I have probably posted the phrase “BA is BS” at least a thousand times in the last three years but there is a point when even I say enough is enough. If a player can’t break .240 then even I will shy away. His K rates are disgusting, his contact rate is usually sub-70%, his LD rate dropped in each of the last three seasons, he reaches outside the zone too often and he has the single worst walk up song in baseball. None of that sounds particularly appealing does it? Well, it shouldn’t but let’s face facts here, at this point in the draft there is very little power left on the board. Sure there are some young guys with upside and a few 25 HR types still floating out there but very little in the way of real old school steroid power. Pena makes a good gamble for a team that went pitching heavy early and missed out on some of the true brutes. I do not want to be seen as a Pena acolyte because nothing could be further from the truth, but the fact is in Chicago and with a change of scenery maybe he puts up a fluky Jose Bautista type year….you never know and in the 12^th round it definitely isn’t too early to gamble.

Okay, that is the top 15 by ADP. Now, I am quickly going to list players I think you should be targeting.

THE REST

Some are color coded…but most are not. How you value these players are really about your teams make up and your personal prefrence. I have highlighted people I love and hate but the rest is left up to you.

Carlos Lee – I will never advise drafting Carlos Lee. But he qualifies at 1B, is going after the 10^th round. If you said you would rather gamble on his season then on Pena I would completely understand. His BB are lackluster at best and his BA is ugghhh…he is old and on the way out the door. But maybe he has one last moment in the sun – of course even if the power does spike back up you are looking at a player that can only contribute in 3 of 6 categories…not worth worrying a whole lot about.

Adam LaRoche – Not before Mid-June. But he will be an excellent throw in trade target about mid-summer.

Derek Lee – I have always hated Lee but last season wasn’t as bad as it appears. All his background numbers were fine (Solid CT%, LD%, etc) but his HR/FB was fluky low. I look for a rebound and something approaching 25 HR – maybe even 30 given health. An excellent Utility pick. He is very undervalued this season.

Garret Jones – What is it with these Pirate hitters? It seems like Pittsburgh does nothing but produce the MLB equivalent of Simply Red. One season they rock it out, the next they fall off the planet earth and end up working at Verizon…in the mall. In this case though I think Jones is due for a little bounce back. It isn’t likely that the HR won’t end up much above 20 but his BABIP was unlucky last season and he shouldn’t hit .240 again. Good late value pick.

Freddie Freeman – Next. Rookie, not a ton of pop, not a ton of BA, no speed, poor K/BB….no thanks.

**** BOC MUST OWN PLAYER ****

Kila Ka’aihue – He didn’t set the world on fire last year but the guy has MASSIVE upside. This year the Royals will finally give him an extended shot and we will see if he is a MLB star or a overrated AAAA player. Personally, I follow the BB and Killa Kila brings them like peaches in a bushel basket (Insert Soutern drawl there). In my mind he is an absolute MUST own. He has 30+ HR power in his bat and the ability to draw 100 BB with ease. His price right now is soooooooo low that he is virtually no risk to acquire. This guy absolutely should be on your roster in ALL formats.

Justin Smoak – Wow, that whole “The Rangers are loaded with Chris Davis AND Justin Smoak at first base” line was pretty accurate hu? In all seriousness, he is a great post-hype player to watch but not to draft. The guy simply does not project the power necessary to be a must own. Could it develop…ehhh…maybe but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Matt LaPorta – Nothing to see here….move along…move along. No need to draft LaPorta at this point. He does bear watching based on pedigree but he has never really demonstrate the skills necessary to lite up MLB pitching over a large sample size. Let him set on waivers and see if his power develops.

Brett Wallace – Wow, the whole Baseball America Handbooks from 2007 and 2008 need to be burned hu? Kidding aside, Wallace will be on many of my teams this season. His BB/K rate is really discouraging but playing his home games in Houston should help his numbers a little. He is a really good last pick type.

Chris Carter – Massive power, terrible confidence crushing start to his career, shit chance of regular time. I still love him though and if he is given playing time he will absolutely be on my roster and should be on yours as well.

James Loney – He is what he is. Oh how broken hearted I am about Loney. I always hoped he would develop 20 HR power but that just doesn’t seem in the cards. The low 30s% FB rate depresses his power and in turn limits his value. I absolutely love him as a Utility and maybe fill in CI player but don’t break the bank obviously. His current ADP is just about righ

Lance Berkman – Total wild card and even at his depressed ADP only worth the risk if you have other needs covered. His role is undefined, his bat is slowed and he is an injury risk. No reason to buy unless you are stocked and get him after round 15. Of course, if you wanted put up $100 buck saying he would be comeback player of the year in 2011 I wouldn’t bet against it.

Ike Davis – He is John Thornton’s 2011 pick for break out player. I personally don’t see him as a true star caliber bat but JT is convinced that he is going to approach 30 HR. He could easily approach 20 HR with decent counting stats but there is nothing in his profile or MILB numbers that indicates he is a candidate for a 30 HR season. Look, you can get Killa Kila 5 rounds later…why waste the pick?

Gaby Sanchez – James Loney II. Great CT rate, squares the ball up, good BA and a little pop. Good bench/utility player.

And as a bonus….

DEEP SLEEPER PICK: I know that it seems unlikely at this point, and thus the deep sleeper tag, but Logan Morrison is a really interesting option for the Marlins at 1B if something happens to Sanchez. Given, that is a long shot and it would take a few weeks for Morrison to gain eligibility but with his absurdly good BB/K rate and developing power he would be a great CI type. I have Morrison, along with fellow Marlin Matt Dominguez, as one of my breakout players of the year. I love this kid.